GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/15/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Corinthians · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Corinthians are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Argentinos JRS are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Corinthians hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (57.3 v 44.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Corinthians holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Corinthians

Probability

46.8%

Model confidence

46.8%

Corinthians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CorinthiansLWDWW

GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Argentinos JRSWLWLW

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CorinthiansArgentinos JRS
29.2Attack38.9
75.0Defence33.3
58.3Form50.0
57.3Power44.0
1.23xG0.63
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