Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coriano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coriano 1-2 Pontedera
Original prediction
Coriano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.2% | 40.2% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.2% | 31.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Coriano
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Coriano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CorianoDD
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.50/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
PontederaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CorianoPontedera
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24