Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cordoba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cordoba 3-2 Tenerife
Original prediction
Cordoba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.7% | 36.8% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.7% | 28.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 23.7% | 35.2% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Cordoba
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Cordoba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CordobaLWLLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TenerifeDLWDL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CordobaTenerife
47.6Attack38.1
23.8Defence57.1
28.6Form52.4
36.8Power50.3
1.26xG1.54