Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cordoba 0-2 Almeria
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 38.6% | 33.2% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 28.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 34.1% | 38.3% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CordobaLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AlmeriaWLLWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CordobaAlmeria
66.7Attack56.1
0.0Defence56.1
0.0Form53.0
23.7Power55.8
1.24xG1.69