Cook Islandsvs
Tahiti
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tahiti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cook Islands 1-3 Tahiti
Original prediction
Tahiti
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 21.50 | 4.4% | 19.0% | 14.6 pts |
| Draw | 9.10 | 10.4% | 21.3% | 10.9 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 85.3% | 59.7% | -25.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Tahiti
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Tahiti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Cook IslandsLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.50/6.00
BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
TahitiWWWL
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 3.50/1.00
BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
Cook IslandsTahiti
16.7Attack100.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form75.0
9.2Power74.4
1.02xG2.10