Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Conquense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Conquense 2-2 Getafe II
Original prediction
Conquense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.6% | 39.3% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.2% | 29.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.34 | 27.2% | 31.6% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Conquense
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Conquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ConquenseWW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
Getafe IILDWLD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ConquenseGetafe II
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24