Congo DR leads with 62% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Match insights

Congo DR head into this in World Cup fixture at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in mixed form (LWLD), while Uzbekistan arrive struggling for consistency (LLL). Congo DR have a 25% win rate across their last 4 matches, compared to 0% for Uzbekistan over 3 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Congo DR's modest attack (44/100) faces a vulnerable Uzbekistan defence (2/100), while Uzbekistan's attack is up against a average Congo DR backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Congo DR's favour.

Congo DR have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home. Uzbekistan have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per away game.

Congo DR have generated 0.85 xG per game recently while conceding 0.77 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 80% of recent matches. Uzbekistan have generated 0.53 xG per game recently while conceding 2.11 xG per match.

Congo DR have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Congo DR to win with 57% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Congo DR 6150%, Draw 2080%, Uzbekistan 1770%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Recent form

Congo DR

L

@ England

1 Jul 2026

1–2

xG 0.8

W

vs Uzbekistan

28 Jun 2026

3–1

xG 2.3

L

@ Colombia

24 Jun 2026

0–1

xG 0.4

D

@ Portugal

17 Jun 2026

1–1

xG 0.8

L

vs Chile

9 Jun 2026

1–2

xG 0.0

Uzbekistan

L

@ Congo DR

28 Jun 2026

1–3

xG 0.2

L

@ Portugal

23 Jun 2026

0–5

xG 0.2

L

vs Colombia

18 Jun 2026

1–3

xG 1.1

D

vs Iran

18 Nov 2025

0–0

W

@ Iran

8 Sept 2025

1–0

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