Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Congo DR · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Congo DR 0-2 Uganda
Original prediction
Congo DR
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 54.0% | 47.7% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.1% | 28.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.00 | 18.9% | 24.1% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Congo DR
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Congo DR has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Congo DRWWLDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UgandaWDLWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Congo DRUganda
16.7Attack16.7
83.3Defence41.7
41.7Form8.3
50.3Power25.7
1.43xG0.79