Concepciónvs
A. Italiano
COMPLETEDChile · Primera División · 9/5/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Concepción · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Concepción 1-0 A. Italiano, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Concepción 0-1 A. Italiano
Original prediction
Concepción
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 46.5% | 48.3% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.0% | 27.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 25.5% | 24.0% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Projected Score
Concepción 1–0 A. Italiano
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Concepción
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Concepción has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ConcepciónWDWWW
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
A. ItalianoLDDDW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ConcepciónA. Italiano
38.1Attack38.1
61.9Defence50.8
47.6Form34.9
50.9Power42.8
1.24xG0.78