Concarneauvs
Thionville Lusitanos
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/5/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thionville Lusitanos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Concarneau 2-2 Thionville Lusitanos
Original prediction
Thionville Lusitanos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.6% | 32.4% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 28.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.1% | 39.0% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Thionville Lusitanos
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Thionville Lusitanos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20