Concarneauvs
Caen
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/19/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Concarneau 2-0 Caen
Original prediction
Caen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.0% | 30.5% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.4% | 28.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.6% | 41.2% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Caen
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Caen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ConcarneauWDDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CaenWWLWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ConcarneauCaen
38.9Attack66.7
66.7Defence72.2
50.0Form66.7
54.0Power67.8
0.89xG1.26