Concarneauvs
Bastia
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 10/17/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Concarneau · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Concarneau 1-0 Bastia, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Concarneau 1-1 Bastia
Original prediction
Concarneau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.3% | 54.8% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 28.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.7% | 17.1% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Projected Score
Concarneau 1–0 Bastia
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Concarneau
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Concarneau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ConcarneauWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BastiaDLDWL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ConcarneauBastia
44.4Attack25.9
70.4Defence59.3
59.3Form40.7
60.1Power44.9
1.23xG0.45