Compostelavs
Sestao River
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Compostela · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Compostela 2-0 Sestao River
Original prediction
Compostela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.0% | 37.6% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.82 | 31.6% | 29.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.4% | 32.9% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Compostela
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Compostela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60