Compostelavs
Atlético Astorga
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Compostela · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Compostela 4-1 Atlético Astorga
Original prediction
Compostela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.4% | 36.3% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.1% | 28.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.60 | 19.5% | 34.8% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Compostela
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Compostela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20