Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Comoros · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Comoros 1-0 Namibia
Original prediction
Comoros
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.3% | 35.8% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.6% | 29.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.1% | 35.2% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Comoros
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Comoros has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ComorosLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NamibiaWLLDD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ComorosNamibia
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power80.3
1.08xG1.39