Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Como 2-0 Sassuolo
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 64.1% | 61.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.76 | 19.9% | 20.3% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.91 | 16.0% | 18.3% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ComoWWLDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SassuoloLDLWD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ComoSassuolo
57.1Attack57.1
66.7Defence33.3
66.7Form38.1
64.6Power45.8
2.25xG1.05