Comovs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/21/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Como 4-1 Manchester United
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 40.2% | 39.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.5% | 25.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 34.3% | 34.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ComoWLDLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Manchester UnitedDLDDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
ComoManchester United
100.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form50.0
59.3Power57.3
1.77xG1.61