Comerciantesvs
Ayacucho FC
COMPLETEDPeru · Segunda División · 9/4/2026, 8:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Comerciantes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Comerciantes 0-0 Ayacucho FC, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Comerciantes 5-1 Ayacucho FC
Original prediction
Comerciantes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.0% | 42.9% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.2% | 30.6% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 4.77 | 18.8% | 26.5% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Projected Score
Comerciantes 0–0 Ayacucho FC
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Comerciantes
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Comerciantes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20