Segunda DivisiónSegunda División
Friday, 24 July 202621:15Last updated 10:12
Comerciantes

Comerciantes

Home
L
10
Full time
Alianza Universidad

Alianza Universidad

Away
W
Estadio Max Augustin
GoalVio prediction
56% confidence
Comerciantes(56%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Comerciantes
56%
Draw
27%
Alianza Universidad
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Comerciantes
9
Alianza Universidad
73
Defence
Comerciantes
66
Alianza Universidad
91
Momentum
Comerciantes
0
Alianza Universidad
100
Danger (xG)
Comerciantes
0.00
Alianza Universidad
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Comerciantes)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Alianza Universidad)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Comerciantes)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Alianza Universidad)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
ComerciantesComerciantes
LW
Alianza UniversidadAlianza Universidad
W

Probability breakdown

56% confidence
Comerciantes56%
Draw27%
Alianza Universidad16%

Comerciantes leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Comerciantes head into this in Segunda División fixture at Estadio Max Augustin in mixed form (L), while Alianza Universidad arrive in mixed form (W). Comerciantes have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Alianza Universidad over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Comerciantes (66/100) and Alianza Universidad (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Comerciantes have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Alianza Universidad have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Comerciantes and Alianza Universidad in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Comerciantes to win with 56% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Comerciantes 5645%, Draw 2728%, Alianza Universidad 1627%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Comerciantes

Comerciantes

L
@ Sport Boys
11 Jul 2026
01
W
vs Deportivo Binacional
16 May 2026
10
Alianza Universidad

Alianza Universidad

W
vs Estudiantil CNI
16 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad?

GoalVio's model predicts Comerciantes to win with 56% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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