Comerciantes Unidosvs
Juan Pablo II College
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/10/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Comerciantes Unidos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II College
Original prediction
Comerciantes Unidos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.1% | 48.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 23.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 23.2% | 27.9% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Comerciantes Unidos
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Comerciantes Unidos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20