Comerciantes Unidosvs
FC Cajamarca
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 8/28/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Comerciantes Unidos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Comerciantes Unidos 2-3 FC Cajamarca
Original prediction
Comerciantes Unidos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 57.7% | 54.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.7% | 22.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.6% | 22.7% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Comerciantes Unidos
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Comerciantes Unidos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40