Copa PaulistaCopa Paulista
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:01
Comercial

Comercial

Home
20
Full time
Noroeste

Noroeste

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
49% confidence
Comercial(49%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Comercial
49%
Draw
25%
Noroeste
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Noroeste)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Noroeste)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
NoroesteNoroeste
D

Probability breakdown

49% confidence
Comercial49%
Draw25%
Noroeste26%

Comercial leads with 49% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Comercial head into this in Copa Paulista fixture in unknown form, while Noroeste arrive in mixed form (D).

Comercial have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Noroeste have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Comercial and Noroeste in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Comercial to win with 49% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Comercial 4880%, Draw 2472%, Noroeste 2648%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Noroeste

Noroeste

D
vs Velo Clube
16 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Comercial vs Noroeste?

GoalVio's model predicts Comercial to win with 49% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Comercial vs Noroeste?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Comercial vs Noroeste?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Comercial vs Noroeste?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more