Comercialvs
EC São Bernardo
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Paulista · 8/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
EC São Bernardo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Comercial 2-0 EC São Bernardo
Original prediction
EC São Bernardo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.7% | 34.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.8% | 28.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.5% | 37.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
EC São Bernardo
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
EC São Bernardo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40