Colwyn Bayvs
Haverfordwest County AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colwyn Bay · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colwyn Bay 1-0 Haverfordwest County AFC
Original prediction
Colwyn Bay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.6% | 64.0% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.5% | 20.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 4.76 | 18.9% | 15.4% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Colwyn Bay
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Colwyn Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00