Colwyn Bayvs
GAP Connah S Quay FC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colwyn Bay 2-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 28.5% | 21.2% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 23.5% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.6% | 55.3% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40