Colwyn Bayvs
Cardiff MET
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colwyn Bay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colwyn Bay 2-2 Cardiff MET
Original prediction
Colwyn Bay
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.5% | 46.3% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.5% | 24.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.29 | 17.0% | 28.9% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Colwyn Bay
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Colwyn Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00