Colwyn Bayvs
Barry Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barry Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colwyn Bay 5-2 Barry Town
Original prediction
Barry Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.4% | 30.4% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.2% | 22.3% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.4% | 47.2% | 17.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Barry Town
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Barry Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40