Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colombia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colombia 2-0 Peru
Original prediction
Colombia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 68.0% | 55.6% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.8% | 24.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 8.21 | 11.2% | 20.2% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Colombia
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Colombia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ColombiaLDWWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PeruLDLLW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ColombiaPeru
44.4Attack33.3
55.6Defence28.6
38.9Form23.8
47.5Power32.3
1.99xG0.91