Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colombia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colombia 0-1 Paraguay
Original prediction
Colombia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.3% | 37.2% | -17.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.6% | 27.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 19.2% | 35.5% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Colombia
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Colombia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ColombiaDWWLL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ParaguayWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ColombiaParaguay
53.3Attack66.7
53.3Defence83.3
46.7Form75.0
52.1Power73.9
1.21xG1.54