GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/21/2023, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Colchester are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Peterborough are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 46.2-point power-rating edge (34.9 v 81.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

75.2%

Model confidence

75.2%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ColchesterLDWWW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PeterboroughWLWWW

GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ColchesterPeterborough
25.0Attack75.0
16.7Defence79.2
50.0Form87.5
34.9Power81.1
0.86xG2.92
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