Colchester United U21vs
Swansea City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Professional Development League · 10/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colchester United U21 1-2 Swansea City U21
Original prediction
Swansea City U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.66 | 24.7% | 30.9% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.3% | 25.4% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.64 | 55.0% | 43.7% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Swansea City U21
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Swansea City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 19 · avg 1.80/3.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20