Colchester United U21vs
Barnsley U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Professional Development League · 9/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Colchester United U21 3-4 Barnsley U21
Original prediction
Barnsley U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 27.6% | 33.1% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.3% | 24.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.1% | 42.8% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Barnsley U21
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Barnsley U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40