Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palestino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cobresal 2-0 Palestino
Original prediction
Palestino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.7% | 25.0% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.9% | 21.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 36.4% | 54.0% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Palestino
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Palestino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CobresalDLLWD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PalestinoWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CobresalPalestino
45.0Attack53.3
30.0Defence55.0
25.0Form55.0
35.5Power55.0
1.23xG2.18