Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cobreloa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cobreloa 6-1 Recoleta
Original prediction
Cobreloa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.0% | 23.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.4% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Cobreloa
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Cobreloa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CobreloaLLWWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RecoletaLWDWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CobreloaRecoleta
55.6Attack48.1
64.2Defence55.6
59.3Form50.6
60.4Power53.3
1.62xG0.92