Club Sp. San Lorenzovs
4 de Mayo
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Sp. San Lorenzo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-1 4 de Mayo
Original prediction
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 82.5% | 46.7% | -35.8 pts |
| Draw | 7.65 | 11.9% | 24.2% | 12.3 pts |
| Away | 16.18 | 5.6% | 29.1% | 23.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 3.00/2.00