GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 2/10/2023, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Club Nacional are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cerro Largo are 3W-0D-0L in their last 3 (WWW), averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Club Nacional hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.5% in the Primera División, while Club Nacional holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Club Nacional

Probability

40.5%

Model confidence

40.5%

Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Club NacionalWDDDD

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Cerro LargoWWW

GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.67/0.67

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
Club NacionalCerro Largo
50.7Attack34.8
55.1Defence63.8
50.7Form42.0
53.4Power48.3
1.20xG0.84
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