Club Leon U21vs
Toluca U21
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX U21 · 10/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Leon U21 1-4 Toluca U21
Original prediction
Toluca U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 32.3% | 27.9% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.8% | 28.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 39.9% | 43.8% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Toluca U21
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Toluca U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00