GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/4/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Club Guarani are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Emelec are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Club Guarani hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (56.9 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

39.9%

Model confidence

39.9%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Club GuaraniWLWDL

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
EmelecLDWLL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Club GuaraniEmelec
48.1Attack33.3
63.0Defence66.7
55.6Form48.5
56.9Power52.5
1.04xG0.68
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