GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8/9/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Club Guarani · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Club Guarani are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Botafogo are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Botafogo hold a 9.5-point power-rating edge (56.9 v 66.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Club Guarani holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Club Guarani

Probability

36.8%

Model confidence

36.8%

Club Guarani has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Club GuaraniLLDWL

GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BotafogoDWWDD

GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Club GuaraniBotafogo
48.1Attack76.2
63.0Defence47.6
55.6Form76.2
56.9Power66.3
1.48xG1.38
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