Club Brugge KVvs
Aston Villa
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/8/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club Brugge KV 2-3 Aston Villa
Original prediction
Aston Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 37.7% | 19.0% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.6% | 21.2% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 35.7% | 59.8% | 24.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80