Club Americavs
Guadalajara Chivas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/20/2026, 3:25:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club America · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Club America 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas
Original prediction
Club America
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 39.4% | 40.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.6% | 26.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 34.0% | 32.9% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Club America
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Club America has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60