Cleethorpes Townvs
Newcastle Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cleethorpes Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cleethorpes Town 1-2 Newcastle Town
Original prediction
Cleethorpes Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.6% | 46.1% | -25.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.38 | 16.9% | 26.4% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 7.91 | 11.5% | 27.4% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cleethorpes Town
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Cleethorpes Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00