Cleethorpes Townvs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cleethorpes Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cleethorpes Town 5-1 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Cleethorpes Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.1% | 38.5% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 24.9% | 26.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.1% | 34.7% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cleethorpes Town
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Cleethorpes Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40