Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yupanqui · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Claypole 0-0 Yupanqui, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Claypole 2-1 Yupanqui
Original prediction
Yupanqui
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.0% | 29.2% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.83 | 31.4% | 32.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.6% | 38.5% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.9 pts
Projected Score
Claypole 0–0 Yupanqui
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Yupanqui
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Yupanqui has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ClaypoleWLLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
YupanquiDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ClaypoleYupanqui
25.0Attack38.1
58.3Defence61.9
34.5Form40.5
41.8Power48.2
0.60xG0.89