Ciudad de Lucenavs
Tenerife II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ciudad de Lucena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ciudad de Lucena 1-2 Tenerife II
Original prediction
Ciudad de Lucena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 36.3% | 36.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.5% | 29.6% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.3% | 33.9% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Ciudad de Lucena
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Ciudad de Lucena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.67/1.00
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00