Ciudad de Lucenavs
Puente Genil
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ciudad de Lucena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 Puente Genil
Original prediction
Ciudad de Lucena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 48.6% | 43.4% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 28.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 23.6% | 28.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Ciudad de Lucena
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Ciudad de Lucena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00