Ciudad de Lucenavs
Don Benito
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/11/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ciudad de Lucena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ciudad de Lucena 0-0 Don Benito, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ciudad de Lucena 4-2 Don Benito
Original prediction
Ciudad de Lucena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 38.9% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.7% | 30.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 25.8% | 30.6% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Projected Score
Ciudad de Lucena 0–0 Don Benito
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Ciudad de Lucena
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Ciudad de Lucena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80