Cittadellavs
Lumezzane
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cittadella 2-1 Lumezzane
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.7% | 43.6% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.1% | 29.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.2% | 27.2% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00