Cittadellavs
Lecco
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/26/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cittadella 1-0 Lecco, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cittadella 3-0 Lecco
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.8% | 45.2% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 28.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.12 | 21.8% | 25.9% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Projected Score
Cittadella 1–0 Lecco
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CittadellaWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LeccoDWWLL
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CittadellaLecco
50.0Attack16.7
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form50.0
83.3Power53.0
1.25xG0.77