Cittadellavs
Arzignano Valchiampo
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/19/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cittadella 1-0 Arzignano Valchiampo
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.9% | 55.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 24.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 20.2% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00